School of Social and Political Science

Description

Join us for the Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture with Professor John Garry

Losers' Consent and Sovereignty Referendums: Potential Referendums on Irish Unification

Peaceful transitions in power, after elections or referendums, depend upon the acceptance of the results of the counts by those who have lost—a phenomenon known as ‘losers’ consent’. Achieving losers’ consent is arguably most acute in contested sovereignty referendums. A public opinion strategy is required by those who advocate changing the sovereign status of a territory and who are subject to three constraints: (i) their wish to maximise losers’ consent, (ii) their need to retain their support base, and (iii) their need to persuade undecided voters. The strategy involves generating, based on findings from specially designed studies of public opinion, an optimised version of the alternative to the status quo—and advocating that version before the referendum. This lecture will illustrate this strategy using the example of potential referendums on Irish unification, a ‘typical’ case because it poses the core challenges—on timing and content—addressed by our strategy. The implications of this discussion for potential independence referendums in Scotland and Wales, and for our understanding of the 'Brexit' referendum, are discussed.

Speaker bio:

John Garry is Professor of Political Behaviour, and Director of the Democracy Unit, at Queen's University Belfast.